Indianapolis Colts vs Green Bay Packers — Win Probability
FINAL
Indianapolis Colts
0-1
10
VS
Green Bay Packers
0-1
16
Market line: GB -4.5, total 47 · Model expected score: Indianapolis Colts 21.3 – Green Bay Packers 25.7
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Packers 63%
ACTUAL RESULT
Green Bay Packers won by 6
COMBINED SCORE
26
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Margin of Victory — Green Bay Packers (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
37%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7 ← actual result
12%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
13%
Won by 21+
11%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 26.
O/U LINE 30
90% over10% under ✓
O/U LINE 40
70% over30% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
59% over41% under ✓
O/U LINE 47 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
47% over53% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
35% over65% under ✓
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