Cleveland Browns vs Jacksonville Jaguars — Win Probability
FINAL
Cleveland Browns
0-1
18
VS
Jacksonville Jaguars
0-1
13
Market line: JAX -2.0, total 44.5 · Model expected score: Cleveland Browns 21.2 – Jacksonville Jaguars 23.2
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Jaguars 56%
ACTUAL RESULT
Cleveland Browns won by 5
COMBINED SCORE
31
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Margin of Victory — Jacksonville Jaguars (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied ← actual result
44%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
17%
Won by 15-21
11%
Won by 21+
8%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 31.
O/U LINE 30
86% over ✓14% under
O/U LINE 40
63% over37% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
51% over49% under ✓
O/U LINE 44.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
39% over61% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
29% over71% under ✓
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