Pittsburgh Steelers vs Atlanta Falcons — Win Probability
FINAL
Pittsburgh Steelers
0-0
18
VS
Atlanta Falcons
0-0
10
Market line: ATL -3.0, total 42.5 · Model expected score: Pittsburgh Steelers 19.7 – Atlanta Falcons 22.7
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Falcons 59%
ACTUAL RESULT
Pittsburgh Steelers won by 8
COMBINED SCORE
28
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Margin of Victory — Atlanta Falcons (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied ← actual result
41%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
11%
Won by 21+
9%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 28.
O/U LINE 30
82% over18% under ✓
O/U LINE 40
57% over43% under ✓
O/U LINE 42.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
45% over55% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
34% over66% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
23% over77% under ✓
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