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Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers — Win Probability

FINAL
Las Vegas Raiders logo
Las Vegas Raiders
0-0
10
VS
Los Angeles Chargers logo
Los Angeles Chargers
0-0
22
Market line: LAC -3.0, total 42.5 · Model expected score: Las Vegas Raiders 19.8 – Los Angeles Chargers 22.8
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Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Chargers 59%
ACTUAL RESULT
Los Angeles Chargers won by 12
COMBINED SCORE
32
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Margin of Victory — Los Angeles Chargers (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost / Tied
41%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
18%
Won by 15-21
12%
Won by 21+
9%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 32.

O/U LINE 30
83% over ✓17% under
O/U LINE 40
58% over42% under ✓
O/U LINE 42.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
46% over54% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
34% over66% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
24% over76% under ✓
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Every number above comes from the model's live prediction data — 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations, grounded in the market line at generation time.

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