Jacksonville Jaguars vs Miami Dolphins — Win Probability
FINAL
Jacksonville Jaguars
0-0
17
VS
Miami Dolphins
0-0
20
Market line: MIA -3.5, total 49.5 · Model expected score: Jacksonville Jaguars 23.0 – Miami Dolphins 26.5
Ad space
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Dolphins 61%
ACTUAL RESULT
Miami Dolphins won by 3
COMBINED SCORE
37
Ad space
Margin of Victory — Miami Dolphins (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
39%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
9%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
18%
Won by 15-21
12%
Won by 21+
9%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 37.
O/U LINE 30
93% over ✓7% under
O/U LINE 40
76% over24% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
66% over34% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
55% over45% under ✓
O/U LINE 49.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
43% over57% under ✓
🔒
Unlock Full Game Stats
Margin-of-victory breakdowns and total-score probabilities for every game are a free-account feature. This one's part of the paid slate — the Game of the Week is always free to view in full.
PFF player grades, lineup matchups, and betting-line insights for every game are a free-account feature. This one's part of the paid slate — the Game of the Week is always free to view in full.