WAS23
FINAL
55PHI
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Washington Commanders vs Philadelphia Eagles — Win Probability

FINAL
Washington Commanders logo
Washington Commanders
1-1
23
VS
Philadelphia Eagles logo
Philadelphia Eagles
2-0
55
Market line: PHI -5.5, total 48 · Model expected score: Washington Commanders 21.3 – Philadelphia Eagles 26.8
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Prediction vs. Result

We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.

PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Eagles 66%
ACTUAL RESULT
Philadelphia Eagles won by 32
COMBINED SCORE
78
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Margin of Victory — Philadelphia Eagles (Home)

Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.

Lost / Tied
34%
Won by 1-3
9%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
20%
Won by 15-21
14%
Won by 21+ ← actual result
12%

Total Score — Over / Under

Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 78.

O/U LINE 30
91% over ✓9% under
O/U LINE 40
73% over ✓27% under
O/U LINE 44
62% over ✓38% under
O/U LINE 48
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 48 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 52
38% over ✓62% under
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Every number above comes from the model's live prediction data — 100,000 Monte Carlo simulations, grounded in the market line at generation time.

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