Buffalo Bills vs Kansas City Chiefs — Win Probability
FINAL
Buffalo Bills
3-0
29
VS
Kansas City Chiefs
2-0
32
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Chiefs 55%
ACTUAL RESULT
Kansas City Chiefs won by 3
COMBINED SCORE
61
Margin of Victory — Kansas City Chiefs (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
45%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
9%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14
17%
Won by 15-21
10%
Won by 21+
7%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 61.
O/U LINE 30
92% over ✓8% under
O/U LINE 40
74% over ✓26% under
O/U LINE 44
63% over ✓37% under
O/U LINE 48
52% over ✓48% under
O/U LINE 48.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 52
40% over ✓60% under
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Margin-of-victory breakdowns and total-score probabilities for every game are a free-account feature. This one's part of the paid slate — the Game of the Week is always free to view in full.
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