Houston Texans vs Kansas City Chiefs — Win Probability
FINAL
Houston Texans
2-0
14
VS
Kansas City Chiefs
0-0
23
Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Chiefs 71%
ACTUAL RESULT
Kansas City Chiefs won by 9
COMBINED SCORE
37
Margin of Victory — Kansas City Chiefs (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
29%
Won by 1-3
8%
Won by 4-7
12%
Won by 8-14 ← actual result
20%
Won by 15-21
16%
Won by 21+
15%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 37.
O/U LINE 30
82% over ✓18% under
O/U LINE 40
57% over43% under ✓
O/U LINE 42.5 MARKET LINE
50% over50% under ✓
O/U LINE 44
45% over55% under ✓
O/U LINE 48
34% over66% under ✓
O/U LINE 52
24% over76% under ✓
Projected Margin Range — Kansas City Chiefs (Home)
Negative means Kansas City Chiefs lost by that many points. The shaded band is the 25th–75th percentile; the dot is the median.
P05: -14
Median: +8
P95: +29