Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills — Win Probability
FINAL
Baltimore Ravens
1-0
25
VS
Buffalo Bills
2-0
27
Market line: BUF -1.0, total 51.5 · Model expected score: Baltimore Ravens 25.3 – Buffalo Bills 26.2
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Prediction vs. Result
We keep every prediction permanently so we can always show our work.
PREGAME WIN PROBABILITY
Bills 53%
ACTUAL RESULT
Buffalo Bills won by 2
COMBINED SCORE
52
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Margin of Victory — Buffalo Bills (Home)
Pregame odds for every possible outcome, simulated before kickoff -- the highlighted bar is what actually happened.
Lost / Tied
47%
Won by 1-3 ← actual result
9%
Won by 4-7
11%
Won by 8-14
16%
Won by 15-21
10%
Won by 21+
7%
Total Score — Over / Under
Combined final score against five common lines, plus this game's actual market line -- the real combined score was 52.
O/U LINE 30
95% over ✓5% under
O/U LINE 40
81% over ✓19% under
O/U LINE 44
71% over ✓29% under
O/U LINE 48
61% over ✓39% under
O/U LINE 51.5 MARKET LINE
50% over ✓50% under
O/U LINE 52
49% over51% under ✓
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